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news covering the period of November 2021
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Tuesday, November 30
Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at$9.15/lb ($20,165/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.06/lb lower.
Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on Monday
and started today just under the 114,400 tonne level. Nickel gained
yesterday as covid jitters calmed, but the president of Moderna has
spooked investors again, with a claim that the effectiveness of current
vaccines will likely be less against Omicron than it was against Delta.
He also stated to the Financial Times "I just don't know how much because we need to wait for
the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is
not going to be good." Is Moderna the most unbiased party they could
find for an opinion on the new strain and vaccine effectiveness?
Really? This uncertainty in the markets will continue until someone can
advise, with some degree of certainty, what Omicron really means to the
world. Norilsk Nickel, after admitting it was wrong
when it forecast a surplus of nickel this year, is forecasting a
surplus of
59kt next year. You can find their forecast and good info for you
number crunchers starting on page 61 of their Strategy Day report
linked in the reports section. And if you think you have it bad today,
do you remember back when Americans were boycotting all things French,
and that included the mustard that had nothing to do with France, but
bore its name? What were these poor people talking about Monday morning
(here)? Stay safe out there, and have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $9.05/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper slips as uncertainty over Omicron impact looms - more
Monday's market review - Copper firms as low inventories
outweigh Omicron fears - Copper prices climbed on Monday as fears about
further damage to growth and demand from the Omicron coronavirus
variant were outweighed by low inventories of the industrial metal. -
more
Profits of 300 Series Stainless Steel to Shrink - The stainless steel
prices trended lower last week with a weekly loss of 400 yuan/mt. - more
Subdued Trades in Traditional Low Season, Stainless Steel Prices to Meet Resistance - more
China’s economy likely remained weak as factories slump - more
Russia’s Nornickel ups investment forecast by $6 billion over next
decade - Russia’s Norilsk Nickel said it has raised its 2021-2030
investment estimate by $6 billion to $35 billion to reflect higher
construction costs and increased investment in energy infrastructure
upgrades. - more
Brazil's Vale cuts top of forecast 2021 iron ore production range -
Brazilian miner Vale SA on Monday lowered the ceiling for its 2021 iron
ore production outlook to 320 million tonnes from a previous estimate
of 335 million tonnes, while leaving the lower end of the forecast
range at 315 million tonnes. - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on November 27, 2021, domestic raw
steel production was 1,837,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 83.2 percent. Production was 1,621,000 net tons in
the week ending November 27, 2020 while the capability utilization then
was 73.3 percent. The current week production represents a 13.3 percent
increase from the same period in the previous year. - more
Europe: Plug-In Cars Capture 23% Market Share In October 2021 - The
European automotive market struggles more and more with the ongoing
semiconductor shortage and the lack of new cars at dealerships. - more
Poll Shows US Majority Support For Urgent Transition To EVs - more
Supply Chain Challenges Call for a ‘Tailored Approach’ - Headlines and
news shows admonish consumers to beware of holiday toy and electronics
shortages, decrying supply availability and logistics challenges. - more
Nickel closed Wednesday's trading
session at $9.44/lb ($20,810/tonne), Thursday at $9.38/lb ($20,685/tonne) and Friday at $9.02/lb ($19,895/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.13/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell all
three days, and started this week just under the 115,300 tonne level.
Nickel
fell sharply on Friday as news hit that
a new covid variant (now named omicron) has been discovered in South
Africa, that had health
officials deeply concerned. World markets, not just commodities,
tumbled after waking up to headlines like those in Britain that screamed
"'worst-ever' super-mutant Covid variant" (quoting UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid - who should pick his words better);
language that tends to
spook markets and scare the bejesus out of nearly everyone.
Nickel,
which had traded over the $21,000/tonne level for a short period on
Thursday, spent much of Friday trading under the $20,000/tonne level,
where it closed for the week The news hit late Thursday, so Shanghai
markets led the bearish turn this time around. On Sunday, the
Netherlands reported that of 500 passengers on two flights arriving
from South Africa on Friday, 61 had tested positive for covid and 13 of
those were infected with the Omicron variant. 'Herd immunity' appears
to
be a phrase of the past, while 'spike protein mutation' is the phrase
of
the day. It's way too early to tell what long term affect this might
have on nickel and stainless steel but we suggest it is likely not much
will change from where we were last Thursday. More contagious, or more
deadly, or more whatever..... outside of China, the world appears to be
growing accustomed to the new reality of covid, so unless this most
recent mutation starts turning infected people into hideous, mutant
gargoyles,
we suspect the panic of last Friday will be short lived. The risk, at
least for now, remains with supply chain bottlenecks. Demand for
stainless remains strong, supply remains stressed, and nickel supplies
continue to fall. Not exactly a scenario favoring the bearish trader in
the long term. Two days left in November, so stay safe out there and
have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $9.01/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London copper firms as investors weigh Omicron impact - more
Studies Related to Microbially Induced Corrosion of Stainless Steel 304 and 316 - pdf here
Friday's market review - Industrial metals slide on new
coronavirus variant jitters - Copper prices and other industrial metals
were on the back foot on Friday over fears that a new and possibly
vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant could derail global economic
growth and sap demand. - more
Nickel Gains as the Pure Nickel Inventory has Been Low and Dropped
Continuously - Nickel yesterday [23rd] settled up by 0.65% at 1554.5 as
the pure nickel inventory has been low and dropped continuously,
underpinning nickel prices. - more
Don't hope that the stainless steel shortage in the United States will
improve - Until you know that the new supply is online, do not hope
that the stainless steel shortage in the United States will improve. - more
Stainless steel prices expected to hike after EU bans scrap exports -
The critical raw materials that affect the price of stainless steel are
nickel and scrap. - more
US to face short supply of stainless steel in the future - more
The Emerging Electric Vehicle and Battery Industry in Indonesia:
Actions around the Nickel Ore Export Ban and a SWOT Analysis - As the
automotive industry shifts from internal combustion engine (ICE)
vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), many countries are setting new
strategies in their transportation sector. - more and complete free report here(lot of stats for number crunchers)
Trucking's role in untangling the web of West Coast port congestion - The
driver shortage has become a "scapegoat" for bottlenecks as empty
containers, low yard productivity, limited space and unavailable
chassis converge. - more
China’s Covid Zero Policy Towards Seafarers Escalates Supply Chain Crisis - more
California port truckers ‘drowning’ in supply chain inefficiencies - more
West Coast Dockworkers Reject Contract Extension, Seek Talks - more
Shipping Cost And Delays Are Prompting Companies To Look Towards Canadian And U.S. Suppliers - more
Motivational Monday - Whether you like the guy or not, one has to
admit he is a marvel of the business world. There is a new video on
Youtube, which takes segments from different interviews Elon Musk has
given on what he looks for in employees. The video is titled "Why I
Fire Employees Every Day" and you can watch it here. (Note - If he actually mentioned terminating an employee, we missed it - this is on what he looks for in 'hiring' employees)
We will not be posting Thursday (25th) and Friday (26th), but will
return to daily updates on Monday. Happy Thanksgiving to all of our
readers.
Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing!
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $9.22/lb ($20,330/tonne). Indicators at 6:05 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.25/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Tuesday and started today just over the 117,300 tonne level. Nickel
ended higher on Tuesday, albeit by only
$20/tonne. This is the third consecutive close above the $20,000/tonne
level and technically, sends a bullish trading signal. Other technical
signals are mixed, but lean toward sell as overbought. Traders
apparently are not watching technicals but jumping on for the bullish
ride and seeing where it takes them. Reuters is
reporting
iron ore futures surged yesterday on speculation steelmakers in China
are preparing to resume full production (story).
This news is bullish for nickel, as is the continued dwindling of LME
stockpiles, and a weakening Euro. The WSA numbers from yesterday
reflect the difference Chinese steel shut downs meant to world steel
production in October. In 'Other News' one of the Chinese provinces has
banned the sale of gas and diesel powered cars starting next March. EV
anyone? This is a week we Americans
reflect on the blessings life has bestowed upon us and offer our
Thanksgiving. We wanted to take a moment and thank our sponsors for
their support, and in many cases, their continued support of this page.
Without this support, the site would no longer exist. Our first sponsor
from years ago, Duraloy, is our sponsor this month. We
want to thank Duraloy and also wish the company
a Happy 100th Birthday. You can watch a short corporate video
introducing their company here. Stay safe out there, and enjoy your holiday and weekend. We hope to see you again next Monday.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.97/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper prices rise on easing woes over China demand, low stocks - more
Tuesday's market review - Copper prices fall as Powell's
nomination boosts dollar - Copper prices eased under pressure from a
stronger dollar on Tuesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell was nominated for a second term, reinforcing investor
expectations for higher interest rates in 2022. - more
SunSirs: Stainless Steel Prices Fell Weakly on November 22 - According
to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel fell
slightly on the 22nd, with a price of 19,133.33 RMB/ton, down 0.52%
from the previous trading day and up 32.41% from the beginning of the
year. - more
October 2021 crude steel production - World
crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World
Steel Association (worldsteel) was 145.7 million tonnes (Mt) in October
2021, a 10.6% decrease compared to October 2020. - more
State of emergency for Guatemalan town battling nickel mine - Guatemala
has decreed a state of emergency in El Estor, an eastern town of mainly
indigenous people in conflict with a Swiss-owned nickel mine they
accuse of polluting their lake. - more
PH metals output down, but value up at P121.16 B - The Philippines’
production of metallic minerals were mostly down during the first nine
months of the year, but value was higher at P121.16 billion due to
continuing increase in prices in the world market. - more
Metal fabrication ready to take off in 2022 - Every month Chris Kuehl,
economic analyst for the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association
Intl. and president of Lawrence, Kan.-based Armada Corporate
Intelligence, publishes the Armada Strategic Intelligence System
(ASIS), in collaboration with Morris, Nelson & Associates,
Leavenworth, Kan. - more
IHS Markit US Business Outlook Reflects Inflationary Pressures on
Supply Chains - The latest IHS Markit Business Outlook survey indicated
that business optimism among US private sector firms weakened in
October and fell below the historic series average. - more
Containers Waited a Record 7.6 Days at L.A. Ports in October - The
number of days containers are waiting to be picked up by trucks at
California’s neighboring ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach climbed to
a record in October, just before officials announced a new plan to
clamp down on the backlog in collections. - more
Broken Supply Chains Threaten Ruin at a Growing Number of Small Firms - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $9.21/lb ($20,310/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.02/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell by
over 3000 tonnes for the first time since late September, and started
today's session just under the 118,200 tonne level. Cancelled warrants
remain just over the 40% ratio. Withdrawals are back to averaging
around 1,500 tonnes per day so far this month. Shanghai markets
continue to follow the LME's prior trading session and jumped
overnight, shadowing LME's prior two day gain. While higher this
morning, nickel is already well off an earlier high. Supply Chain Brain
has two articles we posted under the Other News section. One is on the
shortage of coffee beans and the other is on the shortage of water.
Does anyone remember the Thanatorium from Soylent Green? Should the
world start running out of coffee, we suggest they better start
building Thanatorium's every few blocks. First covid - and now
expensive coffee. Enough! It's Thanksgiving so somebody needs to chill
on the bad news for a few days! Stay safe out there, enjoy your coffee
while you can still afford it, and have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.95/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Shanghai zinc gains as Glencore maintenance plan fuels supply fears - more
Monday's market review - Renewed China demand fears weigh
on copper - Copper prices came under pressure on Monday from renewed
worries about demand in top consumer China, expectations of a more
balanced market over the coming months and a stronger dollar. - more
China's daily crude steel output further decreases in October - China's
average daily crude steel output in October 2021 hit a record low since
2018 amid the country's bid to cut carbon emissions and gear up green
transformation of the steel industry, according to the Ministry of
Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). - more
Yusco & Tang Eng’s operation performance maintains optimistic - The
international nickel price has risen back to the US$20,000/ton level.
Supported by the raw material prices of the stainless steel market,
Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco) and Tang Eng Iron Works Co., Ltd., two
leading stainless steel upstream suppliers in Taiwan, were expected to
continue to raise their prices, and their operation performance also
maintained optimistic. - more
Mining giant Nornickel proposes doubling 9-month dividend amid high
metals prices - Russian mining giant Nornickel has recommended a
dividend payment for the first nine months of 2021 at 232.84 billion
roubles ($3.2 billion) in total, the company said on Monday. - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on November 20, 2021, domestic raw
steel production was 1,861,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 84.3 percent. Production was 1,621,000 net tons in
the week ending November 20, 2020 while the capability utilization then
was 73.3 percent. The current week production represents a 14.8 percent
increase from the same period in the previous year. - more
Port Congestion Eases in Asia While U.S. Battles Import Deluge - Asia’s
largest ports are showing signs that congestion is easing ahead of the
holiday season, a potentially positive step for key trade gateways in
the U.S. that are still battling an influx of imports. - more
Big 50 Distributors Forecast 2022 Issues & Trends - To say 2021 was
tumultuous might detract from just how much more dramatic a business
environment we lived with the year prior. - more
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $9.09/lb ($20,030/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.03/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell by
over 2200 tonnes on Friday and started this week just over the 121,200
tonne level. Nickel closed above a major line of resistance on Friday,
breeching the $20,000 tonne level and closing above it for the first
time this month. Other base metals are lower this morning, but nickel
bulls are desperately trying to hold onto this level for a second
consecutive day. Last week was another example of volatility, with
trading starting the week around $19,945/tonne, falling below $19,200
at one point on Thursday, hitting the 100 day moving average, bouncing,
and closing the week over the $20,000 tonne level. We will be making
some changes to a price we post under the Report section. The SHFE SS
Futures price we post is the SS2112 contract - while most media outlets
quote the SS2002 when they mention the contract price. So next week we
will start to follow the latter, which will cause a decrease in the
price. Today the 2112 is 18,390 and the 2002 is 17,330. We apologize if
this causes confusion, but the current way already has with a few
readers. It's a new week and for much of the U.S. a short one. Closed
for Thursday to celebrate Thanksgiving, many close for a long weekend
on Friday. We will as well, and catch you up on LME activity next
Monday. Stay safe out there and have a great week!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.93/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Renewed China demand fears weigh on copper - more
Friday's market review - Aluminium gains as blast at China
smelter fuels supply fears - Aluminium prices climbed on Friday as an
explosion at a smelter in China fuelled fears about tighter supplies,
while concerns about shortages and low inventories boosted copper
prices. - more
Commodity market in a supercycle; like steel, aluminum: JPMorgan - The
commodity market currently is witnessing a supercycle in terms of price
performance, said Pinakin Parekh, Metals and Mining and Oil and Gas
Analyst at JPMorgan. - more
China terminates AD review on GCNS’s stainless steel billet & HRC -
According to the announcement from the Ministry of Commerce of China
(MOFCOM), China decided to terminate the review of anti-dumping (AD)
measures and dumping margins on stainless steel billets and stainless
steel hot-rolled plates/coils produced by PT Indonesia Guang Ching
Nickel and Stainless Steel. Industry (GCNS) from the date of the
announcement after examining the firm’s application submitted on
September 30, 2021 requesting to withdraw the review. - more
UN Report: Freight Rates, Shipping Cast Shadow Over Economic Recovery -
The United Nations trade and development agency, UNCTAD, is warning
that global consumer prices will rise significantly in the year ahead
until shipping supply chain disruptions are unblocked and port
constraints and terminal inefficiencies are tackled. - more
Infrastructure Bill Fuels the Wholesale Distribution Industry - more
Monday's Motivation Video - US Navy Admiral William McRaven gives a
commencement speech at the University of Texas in Austin in 2014. His
ten lessons learned in U.S Navy Seal training stunned the audience,
became an internet motivational sensation, and led Admiral McRaven to
write a book called "Make Your Bed - Little Things That Can Change Your
Life and Maybe The World". This speech is posted in numerous You tube
locations, but Motivational Hub offers the best presentation. If you
have 16 minutes and want to get pumped up, we invite you to watch the
edited speech here
Nickel closed Thursday's trading
session at $8.92/lb ($19,655/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.07/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Thursday and started today just over the 123,400 tonne level. Yesterday
we mentioned that nickel's 100 day
moving average was around the $19,150/tonne level. That was tested
yesterday,
and as soon as it was hit, the market bounced sharply. Bounce probably
doesn't describe a $500/tonne jump over a 90 minute period and give it
proper
justice. What was Mr Rogers word of the day yesterday morning? Shanghai
followed London's lead and rose 3% overnight. And even though the Euro
has given back the gains it pulled off the last few days against the
U.S. Dollar, typically negative on base metals trading, nickel
continues to rise this morning. The forecasts for a nickel market in
surplus next year seemed to have taken London traders by surprise
earlier this month, but with LME stockpiles down another near 19,000
tonnes already this month, it doesn't appear many are buying the
prediction yet.
Europe joined a growing list of countries adding import tariffs on
Indonesia and India stainless steel, while Indonesia defends itself at
the World Trade Organization against a complaint about their nickel ore
export ban. Not exactly sure how one nation can tell another sovereign
nation that they must export their national minerals, but surely there
is more to this than that. Stainless steel prices were edging down this
week, but unless nickel falls as fast as it jumped this week, that
trend may be over. All eyes are on China and the supply and demand for
stainless steel there. As the world's biggest consumer and producer,
what happens in China matters to the world. It's the end of another
week and the last 'full' week for US markets. Next week is Thanksgiving
and we will join many business' in closing both Thursday and Friday.
Stay safe out there and enjoy your weekend!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.92/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Aluminium jumps amid supply concerns on report of China smelter blast - more
Thursday's market review - Copper rebounds from lowest in
a month on upbeat U.S. data - Copper prices bounced on Thursday,
breaking a string of three sessions of losses, as buoyant U.S. data
fueled hopes of rising demand amid thin inventories. - more
EU
is imposing tariffs on stainless steel from India, Indonesia and Asia -
The European Union has imposed high prices on imported stainless steel
products from India and Indonesia from a report found in an article
published on Reuters that were sold at artificially low prices. - more
Commission imposes definitive duties in three anti-dumping cases to defend EU producers and protect jobs - more
SunSirs: Stainless Steel Prices Fell Weakly on the 17th - According to
the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel fell
slightly on the 17th, with a price of 19,533.33 RMB/ton, down 1.68%
from the previous trading day and up 35.18% from the beginning of the
year. - more
China to witness weak domestic steel demand on an overheated property market: ICRA - more
Jokowi Unafraid Of Lawsuits Over Raw Materials Export Ban - President
Joko "Jokowi" Widodo stated that the government will fight any lawsuits
against Indonesia's raw material export ban. - more
Indonesia attends WTO session on EU lawsuit over nickel export ban - more
New mine extends nickel-cobalt production in Ravensthorpe - Mines and
Petroleum Minister Bill Johnston today officially opened First Quantum
Minerals' (FQM) Shoemaker-Levy mine at the company's Ravensthorpe
nickel-cobalt operations. - more
Global eForum - E-Scrap Committee: WEEE recycling experiences ripple
effect of “the fight for raw materials” - Latest developments in the
ever-shifting but ever-expanding world of electrical and electronic
equipment recycling were debated at the BIR E-Scrap Committee webinar
broadcast on November 17, with expert insights focusing on two of
WEEE’s most important constituents - plastics and metals. - more
Kabanga Says Tanzania Mine May Answer Elon Musk’s Nickel Plea - The
Tanzanian government has a 16% stake in the project, which was
previously owned by Barrick Gold Corp. and Glencore Plc. - more
2021 EV Sales Projected To Hit A Whopping 5.6 Million - more
Supply Chain Strains and Rising Costs Will Pressure Profitability in
2022 - Global nonfinancial corporates appear to be taking supply chain
disruptions and soaring cost inflation in their stride. - S&P report pdf here
Nickel closed Wednesday's trading
session at $8.78/lb ($19,360/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.06/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouse fell on
Wednesday and ended that session just under the 124,900 tonne level.
While the Euro is slowly recovering against the U.S. Dollar, that is
not helping nickel, where short term technical signals are in the sell
column. Your 52 week low for nickel was hit one year
ago today, when nickel traded for $15,755/tonne. In the last 52 weeks,
its high was $21,100/tonne, hit on October 20th. As Mr Rogers might ask
"Can you spell volatility?". At present, we show the 100 day moving
average is around $19,150/tonne and the 200 day moving average near
$18,250/tonne. So it's been a good year for nickel traders, a good year for stainless
steel producers and distributors who have been successful in passing on
price increases, and could find product, and not so good for end users,
who have seen their costs increase, their labor force disappear, and
their logistical process break down - at least by some of those who
they contract with. Stainless steel indexes in China are
slowly falling, showing not only the decline in nickel, but also the
slowing in production (see article on China steel output so far this
month below). It's Thursday and the down hill slide for the week is on.
Stay safe out there and have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.94/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper skids to lowest in a month as investors reduce risk - more
Wednesday's market review - Dollar surge drives down
copper prices - Copper prices fell for a third day on Wednesday as
expectations of U.S. interest rate rises lifted the dollar to 16-month
highs, making metals priced in the greenback costlier for buyers with
other currencies. - more
January to September 2021 Metals Balances - (excerpt) The nickel market
was in deficit during January to September 2021 with apparent demand
exceeding production by 108.5 kt. In the whole of 2020, the calculated
surplus was 84.0 kt. - more
Russia’s stainless steel imports rise in Jan-Sep y-o-y - According to
statistics released by the Russian Special Steel and Alloys Consumers
and Suppliers Association (SpetsStal Association), Russia’s stainless
steel imports totaled around 323,200 tons in the first nine months of
this year, hiking by 15.2% compared to the same period a year ago. - more
China's steel output in early Nov down 20% on year: CISA - China's
daily crude steel output in early November was 20% lower year on year,
to be slightly above October's average, according to China Iron &
Steel Association. - more
Russia's Nornickel solves dispute with Botswana, gets compensation -
Russian mining giant Nornickel said on Thursday it has settled its
dispute with Botswana’s government and BCL Group related to the sale of
Nornickel’s assets in Africa, including half of joint venture Nkomati
to BCL. - more
Steel prices dominate manufacturing news in 2021 - Material prices
appear to have peaked, but in the metalworking industry is sure what’s
next - more
EU Waste Shipment Regulation falls short of fixing Europe’s waste
export crisis - NGOs demand a stronger ban on waste exports, a better
alignment with waste treatment hierarchy and fairer shipments for reuse
- more
Container Shipping Rates May Take Two Years to Fall to Normal - Ocean
freight rates, which have pummeled retailers and manufacturers
throughout 2021, may take more than two years to return to normal
levels if past market cycles are any guide. - more
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $8.81/lb ($19,425/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading unchanged .
Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on Tuesday
and started today just under the 126,100 tonne level. If you haven't
looked lately, the Euro is tanking against the U.S. Dollar (see here)
and the pressure finally did nickel's earlier attempt to breech the
$20,000/tonne level. It has recovered ever so slightly this morning,
and so far this morning, nickel is in a wait and see mode. BHP says the
world will need to produce four times the nickel it currently does to
keep up with EV demands. How long will it be before we start hearing
the term 'peak nickel'? Quiet news day. Stay safe out there and enjoy
your hump day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.94/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Shanghai aluminium at near 6-month low on higher stocks, weak outlook - more
Tuesday's market review - Firmer dollar drags down
industrial metals - Prices of industrial metals eased on Tuesday as the
dollar firmed ahead of U.S. retail sales data and on positive sentiment
from a virtual meeting between the leaders of the world's largest
economies. - more
Global need for copper, nickel will multiply over next 30 years -BHP -
The global markets will need four times the nickel and double the
copper in the next 30 years to facilitate a decarbonised world, a BHP
Group executive said on Wednesday. - more
SunSirs: On the 15th, the Cost Dropped, and the Price of Stainless
Steel Continued to Be Weak - According to the price monitoring of
SunSirs, on the 15th, the price of stainless steel fell slightly. The
spot price was 19,986.67 RMB/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading
day and up 37.49% from the beginning of the year. - more
Guatemala kicks off consultation at halted nickel project - Guatemalan
authorities have kicked off a formal consultation with Indigenous
communities living close to the halted Félix nickel project, owned by
Compañia Guatemalteca de Níquel (CGN), a subsidiary of Switzerland’s
Solway Investment Group. - more
IHS Markit US Business Outlook Reflects Inflationary Pressures on
Supply Chains - The latest IHS Markit Business Outlook survey indicated
that business optimism among US private sector firms weakened in
October and fell below the historic series average. - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $8.88/lb ($19,585/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.01/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Monday and started todays session just over the 127,800 tonne level.
Nickel fell sharply yesterday, in concert with a sharp drop in the
Euro. Until yesterday, the Euro had been slowly sliding against the
U.S. Dollar, while nickel had been holding its own. Most of the news
out there seems to be negative for nickel in the near future, while the
long term remains bullish. China's steel output came in at a four year
low, with stress in the property sector, not bringing anyone to
forecast a quick recovery. Federal stimulus money is fueling inflation
right now, and the infrastructure bill signed yesterday, will add more
pressure. And then there is President Biden's so called, social
spending plan, still being considered. And families with kids get their
fourth stimulus this week. If you don't think that last one adds up, we
have seen estimates that a family with two adults and two children have
received an additional $13,400 in stimulus money so far.So if you are
hoping inflation is going away soon - don't. Stay safe out there and
have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.94/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper rises as investors cheer Xi-Biden talks - more
Monday's market review - Copper falls on Chinese property
market weakness, strong dollar - Copper fell on Monday as data showed
weakness in China’s property sector, Chinese coal prices plunged, the
U.S. dollar strengthened to a 16-month high and a supply squeeze on the
London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to ease. - more
Column: United States adds nickel, zinc to critical minerals list -
Nickel and zinc are now deemed critical minerals by the United States.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is proposing both metals be included
in the redrafted critical minerals list. - more
China ferrous futures slide as sluggish downstream demand weighs -
Futures for Chinese ferrous raw materials tumbled on Monday, undermined
by big drop in steel production and expectations of more output cuts in
coming months, while steel prices were also hurt by stagnant downstream
consumption. - more
China's Oct daily crude steel output plunges to nearly 4-year low - more
Nickel 28 Announces Restart of Ramu Mine - Nickel 28 Capital Corp. has
been notified by Metallurgical Corporation of China, our operating
partner at the Ramu mine, that the Ramu nickel-cobalt operation’s mine
has re-started production following the two week pause in operations
announced on October 27, 2021. - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on November 13, 2021, domestic raw
steel production was 1,856,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 84.1 percent. Production was 1,621,000 net tons in
the week ending November 13, 2020 while the capability utilization then
was 73.3 percent. The current week production represents a 14.5 percent
increase from the same period in the previous year. - more
60 Minutes Episode - What's caused America's supply chain crunch? - video here
In bid to free space, San Pedro Bay ports will charge ocean carriers fees for lingering containers - more
Los Angeles and Long Beach Port Authorities Postpone New Container Dwell Fees - more
Now is the time to shockproof supply chains, with a 3-pronged approach - more
Georgia Port Pins Hopes on Rail to Move 80,000 Containers - more
Supply Shortages Fueled by Americans' Spending Spree - more
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $9.05/lb ($19,945/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.11/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Friday and started the week, just under the 129,600 tonne level. Nickel
peeked its head above the $20,000 tonne level for a few moments on
Friday, before closing just under that level. It's trading lower this
morning, following a trend Shanghai markets set overnight. Interesting
story under 'Other News' for those of you having trouble finding
employees. We have known for years there would be some serious
shortages of employees when the baby boomer's retired, in mass. The
pandemic has exacerbated this, by encouraging many to retire earlier
than originally planned. Goldman figures that accounts for up to 60% of
the missing employees, and with resignations in September setting
another all time record high, their departure is being felt. Today is
the halfway point of November, and for those of us in the States, a two
day Thanksgiving holiday next week, shortens the remainder of the
month. Stay safe out there today and have a great week!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.93/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper eases as dollar near 16-month high on rate hike expectations - more
Friday's market review - Copper prices tick higher as
dollar loses ground - Copper prices rose on Friday and logged their
second weekly gain as lower U.S. consumer confidence knocked the dollar
from its highest level in 16 months. - more
Indonesia's antitrust agency investigates nickel smelters - Indonesia’s
anti-monopoly agency is investigating whether domestic nickel smelters
and a surveyor they hired engaged in unfair business practices that
resulted in poor pricing of nickel ore, it said on Friday. - more
ED&F Man and Straits point fingers in US$284 million metals fraud
trial - Broker ED&F Man and Singapore commodities trader Straits
wrapped up a metals fraud trial on Friday, blaming each other after
warehouse receipts for nickel stored in Singapore worth US$284 million
were discovered to be fraudulent. - more
Nickel Ore Inventories at Chinese Ports Surged 190,000 wmt - The nickel
ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 190,000 wmt from a week earlier to
9.24 million wmt as of November 12. Total Ni content stood at 72,500
mt. - more
Only US Aluminum Shipments Increase in October - Steel shipments
declined in both the U.S. and Canada and aluminum shipments declined in
the Canada as well. The only growth was a 2% increase in U.S. aluminum
shipments. - more
Zimbabwe poised to become major steel producer - Zimbabwe will soon
become one of the biggest steel producing countries in the world after
the establishment of the new world class iron and steel plant at
Manhize in Mashonaland West province next year. - more
Note - part of this project is a ferrochrome plant with 500,000 tons annual capacity
Mnangagwa between a rock (of coal) and a hard place as he looks to turn Hwange into a giant coal hub - more
Northvolt claims first battery cell produced from ‘100% recycled
nickel, manganese, and cobalt’ - Northvolt announced that it has
produced what it claims is the first battery cell with a cathode built
“100% from recycled nickel, manganese, and cobalt.” - more
Trucking Profits Soar as Their Customers Grapple With Shortages - While
a global supply chain crisis is crimping sales for companies from Apple
Inc. to Caterpillar Inc., transportation firms are riding an
unprecedented profit boom. - more
Nickel closed Thursday's trading
session at $8.97/lb ($19,765/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.01/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell by
over 2200 tonnes on Thursday and started today just under the 130,300
tonne level. All base metals are trading quietly this morning, with
most slightly lower. The jump in U.S. inflation numbers earlier this
week, have traders betting on an increase in interest rates, sooner
than later, and this has helped the U.S. Dollar trade higher against
the Euro. Typically a stronger Dollar, hurts London based base metals
trading price, but nickel has held its own this week. Wood Mackenzie is
reporting (story below) that
the power cuts in China have cut 850,000 tonnes of stainless steel
output there. That's a whole lot of stainless - and reduces the need
for nickel by about 111,000 tonnes per the Woods report. We will have
to wait and see how this washes out in 2022. In the 'you lived to see
it' news, China, Russia and the U.S. joined forces to encourage the Taliban to drop its ties to terrorism. Covid cases are starting to show evidence
of rising again. New cases in the U.S. fell to 71,500 (7 day average)
on the last day of October. That figure is back up to near 76,800.
Based
on the states in trouble again, the cold weather forcing people inside
and encouraging the spread theory, may hold some water. One would think
with
the number of Americans that are vaccinated, plus those who have been
sick and built up some natural immunity, that the population of
the US should be at herd immunity. We don't hear that term
used much anymore, do we? Here are some discouraging numbers. The top
U.S. states in immunization rates, and their new cases percentile in
the
past week over the prior. #1 Massachusetts - 81.48% immunized and
24.79% increase in
past week #2 Vermont - 80.7% and -10.3% #3 Pennsylvania - 80.2% and
+37% #4 Connecticut - 80.2% and +26.6% #5 Hawaii - 79.6% and -23.9% #6
New Hampshire - 79.3% and +18.3% #7 Rhode Island - 79.2% and
+3.2%. Looking at highly immunized nations, the cold weather theory
gives more evidence. Norway and Iceland are at 78% and 79% vaccinated
rates (in the top 20 of the world), but both are seeing their cases
spike to all time record highs. There was a time not so long ago, when
1,000 American dieing per day would have horrified us. Now the fact
that ten times more Americans are dieing per day from covid than are
dieing in car crashes no longer seems to alarm us, and in fact, annoys many people. More Americans have
died from covid in the past 22 months, than soldiers died during the five years of the American Civil War (no other war comes close).
China is
getting so frustrated in their inability to get to zero new cases, they
are now offering rewards to their citizens, to help them find those
spreading the disease and starting new outbreaks. We suspect they are
fighting a losing battle - but give them credit for not surrendering to
the virus and continuing the fight. For you survivors, it's the
weekend. Stay safe out there and have a relaxing and enjoyable few days
off.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.92/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London copper falls as dollar firms on quick rate-hike hopes - more
Thursday's market review - Copper skips higher on
Evergrande payment and tight supply - Copper prices rebounded on
Thursday after debt-burdened China Evergrande Group again dodged a
default, raising hopes of government support for a property sector that
can drive significant demand for metals. - more
China power curbs cut 7% of annual aluminium capacity - Wood Mackenzie
- (excerpt) The power restrictions have cut 850,000 tonnes of stainless
steel melt output and 35,000 tonnes of nickel in nickel pig iron (NPI)
output, and reduced 2021 nickel consumption by 111,000 tonnes, Wood
Mackenzie said. - more
SunSirs: On the 10th, Both Supply and Demand Were Weak, and the Price
of Stainless Steel Fell Slightly - According to the price monitoring of
SunSirs, on the 10th, the price of stainless steel fell slightly. - more
BHP hungry for more nickel, copper - BHP is looking at investing in
additional early-stage development projects as the company aims to grow
its copper and nickel portfolio. - more
SMU Founder John Packard Discusses Domestic & Foreign Steel Pricing
- Steel buyers are “confused” as are some traders as to what deals are
being offered into the hot rolled market right now. - more
Nippon Steel raises stainless steel sheet prices due to rising raw
materials costs - Nippon Steel, the largest steelmaker in Japan,
announced on November 9 that it decided to raise the price of
nickel-based cold-rolled stainless steel sheets used in kitchen
equipment and automotive components by 10,000 yen per ton, an increase
of around 2%, from the purchase contract in November. - more
SK on started the manufacturing of the world’s first ‘Dream Battery’,
starting the era of ‘9-1/2-1/2 batteries’ - SK on announced on the 10th
that they will mass-produce the world's first ‘9-1/2-1/2 Battery(or
‘Nine half half’)', which is considered to be the best specification
for mid- to large-sized lithium-ion batteries, from next month. - more
CSX, Norfolk Southern say labor constraints are affecting service -
Labor constraints and rising attrition are impacting network
performance on East Coast railroads, executives said on Q3 earnings
calls last month. - more
Nickel closed Wednesday's trading
session at $8.96/lb ($19,745/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.01/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Wednesday and started today's session, just over the 132,500 tonne
level. Nickel gained yesterday and considering the Euro has been
hammered the last few days, the gains are stronger than the traded
price reflects. The 50 day moving average continues to move higher and
are currently at yesterdays trading low - $13,330/tonne. Moving
averages give a far better idea of the trend in trading, and remove the
daily choppy up and down movements. The 50 and 100 day moving averages
are both trading at 2021 highs. The 30 day is trading around the $19,200
and is off earlier highs set in September and October. The 30 day
shows the market, while incredibly volatile at times, has been stuck
along a horizontal trend line since mid September. It's Thursday and on
the news cycle, this day of the week can typically be feast or famine.
Today is a little light, so we added a bunch of articles to the 'Other
News' section that might be of interest to someone. Stay safe out there
and have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.91/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Shanghai tin hits 2-week high as Myanmar COVID-19 surge threatens supply - more
Wednesday's market review - Copper dips as inflation rises
in the U.S. and China - Copper edged lower on Wednesday as high
inflation readings in China and the United States added to concern over
slowing economic growth and central bank tightening. - more
China's Oct steel output declines for sixth straight month, hits
44-month low: CISA - China's daily crude steel output has declined for
a sixth straight month in October, falling 4.9% on the month and
hitting a 44-month low, the China Iron & Steel Association said
Nov. 9. - more
Commodities update: record fall in Chinese steel production behind fall in iron ore prices - more
Robust demand and low iron prices to boost steel margins in second half
of fiscal 2021-22 - With demand uptick stemming from the government’s
thrust on infrastructure, mainly in the rural markets, capacity
utilisation for medium and small long steel product manufacturers is
expected to improve in the coming quarters, said ratings agency ICRA in
its report. - more
Competition between Indian, Chinese metal gamers to accentuate in export markets: ICRA - more
Egypt's Sawiris looks to battery metals, awaits nod on gold concessions
- Egyptian businessman Naguib Sawiris said on Wednesday he was looking
to diversify his interests into sought-after battery metals and was
confident that five new gold prospecting and mining concessions in
Egypt would soon be approved. - more
US adds nickel, zinc to draft critical minerals list, drops potash -
The US Geological Survey (USGS) has added nickel and zinc to its
proposed list of 50 ‘critical minerals’ – defined as those essential to
economic or national security and with a supply chain vulnerable to
disruption – while four others, including potash, have fallen off the
draft 2021 list. - more
Pandemic Pushes Just-in-Time Supply Chain Model to the Brink - The U.S.
supply chain is based largely on a platform known as “just in time,”
where goods are delivered to retailers in some cases hours before they
are needed. - more
Just-in-time and safety stock require a careful balance - more
The Biggest Kink in America’s Supply Chain: Not Enough Truckers - more
Asia's dry bulk pounded by easing congestion, falling commodity prices - more
Snarled Supply Chain Is Making U.S. Warehouse Shortage Worse - more
Supply chain relief by way of partial lift of steel and aluminum tariffs - more
Roll Back Trump-era Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum May Have Hidden Consequences for Supply Chains - more
Behind the global supply chain crisis is a simple case of hubris - more
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $8.80/lb ($19,410/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.02/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Tuesday and started today just over the 133,000 tonne level. Nickel
closed lower yesterday, but higher than it ended last week. While the
overall trend for nickel appears to remain positive, the short term
trend is lower, and mid term mixed. Multiple stainless steel indexes we
follow in China show an acceleration in price drops there. This
indicates a further slowing in their manufacturing. Lot of reports and
articles below. So yesterday we linked to a Reuters article
about a forecast by Antaike on 2022 nickel prices. For some reason most
of the article disappeared after we linked to it, so here it is (here).
Forecasting is the nightmare of every analyst and whoever is closest to
an annual price forecast gets to gloat for five minutes and then they
start sweating the forecast they made for the next year. So Antaike,
being a Chinese analyst, might have an edge in forecasting you might
say. Let's look at how they have done so far for this year. If you read
the article above, you will see their forecast for this year was
$18,500/tonne. Pretty good, huh? Not so fast, my young Padawan. What
did they forecast for 2021 'before' 2021 actually started? Forecasts
aren't really forecasts 'after much of the fact is past' are they?
About one year and one week ago, Antaike published their nickel
forecast for this year (article here).
How did they do? Well, you decide. Price forecast for 2021 - $13,800/tonne.
Global balance forecast of nickel production/consumption - 68,000 tonne
'surplus'. In the world of baseball, this could best be described as a
"swing and a miss". Surplus - nada. And the lowest 'monthly' price
average we have seen this year was $16,461/tonne in March. Last month
it averaged $19,420/tonne. $22/tonne more than September. All of the
analysts were wrong last year, and our Chinese friends are human as
well, so we only post this to remind our readers to take analyst
forecasts with a grain of salt;.... which is forecast to increase in
value next year ... an actual grain of salt that is. Stay safe out there and have a great hump day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.91/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Shanghai copper slips as China inflation clouds economic growth outlook - more
Tuesday's market review - Copper skids on worries over
Chinese property crisis - Copper prices retreated on Tuesday on
concerns that a deepening debt crisis in China’s property sector will
curb demand. - more
CHART: Lagging nickel price defies anemic supply pipeline - Nickel
prices have lagged the base metal complex this year as China’s
clampdown on emissions from heavy industry crimps the stainless steel
market, which is still responsible for the bulk of demand. - more
SunSirs: On the 8th, the Price of Stainless Steel Rose and Fell Mixed -
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on the 8th, the spot
price of stainless steel was 20,333.33 RMB/ton, down 0.33% from the
previous trading day and up 40.72% from the beginning of the year. - more
Exclusive: China's Metals Output in October - (excerpt) According to
SMM data, domestic refined nickel output stood at 14,500 mt in October,
up 1.48% or 212 mt month-on-month. - more
Vale
Indonesia expects lower nickel matte production next year - official
- PT Vale Indonesia INCO.JK said on Wednesday its nickel matte
production is expected to fall as much as 13% next year compared to
normal levels, as furnace rebuilding delays brought about by the
COVID-19 pandemic continue to impact output. - more
Global eForum - Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee:
Circular economy success depends on “fluid global market” for
recyclables - Joost Van Kleef of Netherlands-based Oryx Stainless has
added his own voice to recent criticism of “ill-conceived” regulatory
proposals that threaten to restrict movements of recyclable materials.
- more
2021 Third Molybdenum and Steel International Forums 14-15 October 2021
- Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen. As the International Molybdenum
Association's (IMOA) new Secretary-General I would indeed like to thank
Jinducheng, the China Stainless Steel Council (CSSC) and the China
Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) Molybdenum Branch for the
opportunity to give Opening Remarks at the 14th China Tungsten,
Molybdenum, Vanadium and Titanium Industry Annual Conference in 2021
here in Jilin which is run in conjunction with the 3rd Moly-High End
Steel Forum of which IMOA is also a proud co-organizer. - more
Minnesota lets public weigh in on adequacy of mining rules - Minnesota
regulators began accepting public comments Tuesday on whether the
state's regulation of nonferrous mining would provide sufficient
protection against environmental damage to the Boundary Waters Canoe
Area Wilderness. - more
5 Steps to Boost Supply Chain Resilience - Disruptions — from weather
events to trade wars to the coronavirus pandemic — have wreaked havoc
on supply chains over the past several years. - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $8.91/lb ($19,640/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.01/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Monday and ended that session just under the 134,200 tonne level.
Nickel rose yesterday but the bears can find comfort in another
forecast for 2022 of lower prices and surplus nickel. Antaike is
forecasting an average of $7.71/lb next year and a 45,000 tonne
surplus. Technical signals remain mixed for the short term. Australia
wants the U.S. to know it is well positioned to supply our newest
critical mineral - nickel. As compared to who - our next door neighbor
Canada? Another port starts charging shipping companies for containers
sitting in their ports. And your canned whatever could be getting more
expensive - again. Stay safe out there and have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.90/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper edges higher on renewed concern about scarce supply - more
Monday's market review - Copper up on robust China data
and falling inventories - Copper prices rose on Monday as strong export
growth data from top consumer China, falling inventories and the
passing of a $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure bill boosted sentiment,
though gains were capped by concern over Chinese demand. - more
Nickel prices seen falling in 2022 due to surplus - Antaike - Nickel
prices in 2022 are seen falling from this year's multi-year highs,
Chinese research house Antaike said on Tuesday, with the global market
expected to swing into a surplus as production recovers from pandemic
disruptions. - more
Australia well positioned to supply critical minerals to US -
Washington| Australia is well positioned to benefit from an update to a
list of “critical minerals” in the US, so-called because they are
central to vital industries such as energy, defense and electronics. - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on November 6, 2021, domestic raw
steel production was 1,841,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 83.4 percent. Production was 1,611,000 net tons in
the week ending November 6, 2020 while the capability utilization then
was 72.8 percent. The current week production represents a 14.3 percent
increase from the same period in the previous year. - more
US steel groups praise House passage of infrastructure bill - more
Port of Tacoma Terminal Imposes ‘Long Stay’ Charge for Lingering Import
Containers - A private container terminal at Washington’s Port of
Tacoma has started charging an extended dwell time fee for containers
lingering in the terminal. - more
High Import Prices along the Global Supply Chain Feed Through to U.S. Domestic Prices - more
Roads, Transit, Internet: What's in the Infrastructure Bill - more
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $8.79/lb ($19,385/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.03/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Friday and started the new week just under the 135,900 tonne level.
Nickel's 100 day moving average sits at $19,050/tonne and so far,
remains untested. Cancelled warrants are still in the 47% range. LME
nickel stockpiles have fallen on all six of the reporting days this
month, at an average of 1,195 tonnes per day. If you want to see
further evidence of a potential global slowdown, check out the Baltic
Dry Index (link along bottom of news).
Congress passed President Biden's bi-partisan infrastructure bill on
Friday. Hey bridge builders! Use stainless supports - your bridge will
last longer. It's a new week. Stay safe out there and have a great week!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.90/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper steadies though China demand prospects weigh - more
Friday's market review - Aluminium buckles under pressure
from higher coal output - Aluminum prices fell to their lowest in more
than three months on Friday as rising coal output in China eased
concerns over supply of the metal from smelters powered by the fossil
fuel. - more
When Will Stainless Steel Prices Trend Higher? - Stainless steel
futures have fallen 19% until now after hitting a record high of 22,050
yuan/mt on September 22 since its listing. - more
Global crude steel production crashes to 144.4 million tonnes on energy
crunch - Global crude steel production declined in September, marking
the fourth straight month of month-over-month declines. - more
Taiwan’s Yieh Hsing & Walsin Lihwa to benefit from new-high
stainless steel wire rod export prices - The export price of stainless
steel wire rods in Taiwan has surged to a new high in the past seven
years, and the price in the first three quarters has also surged by
NT$15,500 compared to the same period a year ago. - more
Solway Investment Group’s Morowali nickel smelter project teams up with
Indonesian state-owned enterprise - PT Aquila Cobalt Nickel (ACN), a
subsidiary of the Swiss-based Solway Investment Group, signed a Sales
& Purchase Agreement with the state-owned electricity company PT
PLN for the supply of 200 MVA to its Aquila Project. - more
Sumitomo Metal Mining doubles annual profit forecast on surging metal
prices - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd more than doubled its
annual profit forecast on Monday thanks to surging prices of copper and
nickel as well as a one-off gain from selling its stake in the Sierra
Gorda copper mine in Chile. - more
Battery boom has Sherritt CEO betting on Cuban nickel expansion -
Sherritt International Corp.’s new boss sees the electric-vehicle
revolution stretching all the way to Cuba, with the Canadian miner
planning to boost output of battery-grade nickel and cobalt. - more
U.S. imports of Stainless steel wire increased 26.01 percent from
$110.94 million to $139.79 million through the first nine months of
2021 when compared to the same period the previous year, according to
WorldCity analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. - more
U.S. exports of Stainless steel wire totaled
$14.14 million in September, a change of 55.01 percent from the same
month one year ago. The change from one month ago was -11.70 percent. -
more
U.S. imports of Misc. stainless steel bars,
rods totaled $37.4 million in September, a change of 45.07 percent from
the same month one year ago. - more
U.S. exports of Misc. stainless steel bars,
rods totaled $30.02 million in September, a change of 57.65 percent
from the same month one year ago. - more
Check your item of interest at US Trade Numbers - use the search bar here
Nickel Inventory in Chinese Bonded Zone Accumulated Slightly - The
SHFE/LME nickel price ratio did not provide the opportunity to import
cargoes this week. - more
Fifty Years in Idle Time Seen for Trucks at Two Major U.S. Ports -
Trucking trips originating around the U.S.’s busiest ports are showing
massive increases in idle time, another sign of the supply chain
logjams plaguing American transport hubs. - more
Nickel closed Thursday's trading
session at $8.72/lb ($19,225/tonne). Indicators at 7:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.03/lb higher.
Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on Thursday
and started today's session just under the 137,200 tonne level. Lot of
news today, mostly about, or from, China. Nothing earth shattering, but
a lot of statistics for those of you who like to crunch the numbers.
For those who do not, the main number published is stainless steel
production in China is up over 8.6% for the first nine months of 2021,
compared to the same period of 2020. Consumption in that country is up
over 10%, helping explain where the rising imports from Indonesia are
going. We leave you with the news below. Stay safe out there and have a
relaxing and enjoyable weekend!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.94/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Shanghai aluminium hits 4-mth low as rising coal output eases supply fears - more
Thursday's market review - Aluminium prices plunge as
China ramps up coal production - Aluminium prices fell sharply on
Thursday as China said its coal output had shot up and would continue
to rise, helping to ease a power crisis that has forced smelters to
reduce production. - more
SunSirs: On the 3rd, the Power Limit Was Relaxed, and the Price of
Stainless Steel Fell Slightly - According to the price monitoring of
SunSirs, on the 3rd, the price of stainless steel was currently quoted
at 20,733.33 RMB/ton, down 2.51% from the previous trading day and up
43.38% from the beginning of the year. - more
EU stainless steel buyers concerned about tight supply - Scarcity
of material and high prices will remain key features of the European
stainless steel market, in the last few months of 2021. - more
Shanghai stainless steel futures fall on prospects of higher output -
Chinese stainless steel futures fell more than 2% on Thursday as
traders anticipated higher production this month after some key
producing regions relaxed power curbs. - more
China’s crude stainless steel output rises in Jan-Sep y-o-y - According
to statistics from the Stainless Steel Branch of China Special Steel
Enterprises Association, China’s crude stainless steel production
totaled around 23.83 million tons in the first nine months of this
year, rising by 8.64% compared to the same period a year ago. - more
Rosstat: Russia’s stainless production rises Sep y-o-y - According to
statistics from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat),
Russia’s stainless steel production totaled around 20,700 tons in
September, rising by 34.1% compared to the same month a year ago. - more
China Weekly Inventory Summary and Data Wrap - This is a roundup of
China's metals weekly inventory as of November 5. - more
Iron Ore Back Below $100 as China’s Steel Curbs Roil Market - Iron ore
futures traded back below $100 a ton on shrinking steel output in China
and signs economic growth is facing mounting headwinds. - more
China Ferromolydenum Output Dropped 410 mt MoM in October, Likely to
Decline Further in November - The domestic ferromolybdenum output
totalled about 13,950 mt in October, down 410 mt or 2.86% on the month.
- more
Nickel Asia profit jumps 168% - (excerpt) During the period, Nickel
Asia sold a total of 14.4 million wet metric tons (WMT) of nickel ore
at the weighted average realized price of $27.96 per WMT, as against
14.0 million WMT at $20.10 per WMT in January-September 2020. - more
Standing issues predominate at Minnesota mine hearing - A challenge of
an environmental rule that allows for mining near Minnesota's Boundary
Waters Wilderness brought the focus in on the state's Environmental
Rights Act. - more
Mazda, Tesla, and Jeep Have Re-Written the Rule Book In the U.S. Auto Industry - Mazda,
Jeep, and Tesla have upended what we call luxury, premium, and
performance. It’s time for shoppers and the automotive media to take
notice. - more
Labor-law attorneys suggest employers should prep for compliance with
OSHA vaccine, testing mandates - Although legal challenges already
emerged against an OSHA rule requiring large employers to either
mandate Covid-19 vaccines for employees or test employees weekly,
labor-law attorneys recommend employers prepare to implement the
policy. - more
Nickel closed Wednesday's trading
session at $8.67/lb ($19,110/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.14/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Wednesday and ended that day just under the 138,100 tonne level. LME
fell sharply again yesterday, on news that the US Fed could not raise
interest rates as quickly as the Fed had hoped. Nickel is back up this
morning, as traders realize lower interest rates are the drug that
keeps them profitable. Stockpiles continue to fall, and so far, have
fallen by 4,344 over the past three days. Cancelled warrants remain in
the 47% range. One analyst tells Kitco below, that nickel demand may
increase by twenty fold. But never fear. A group of well known
analysts, polled by Reuters just weeks ago, have determined that all is
well and nickel will return to surplus in 2022. We started the year
with 247,980 tonnes and the drop of almost half this year, is merely a
mirage. The fact, see below, that new Ford EV's are sold out before
they even start production, is of little concern to future battery
demand and nickel demand. And this in a country not yet hip on EV's.
Unless China manufacturing continues to slip, we have a hard time
swallowing the surplus theory. On the other hand, if China bounces back
- watch out! Stay safe out there and have a great Thursday!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.96/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper rises as Fed plans no immediate rate hike - more
Wednesday's market review - Copper edges lower on
uncertainty ahead of Fed meeting - Copper prices slipped on Wednesday
on uncertainty ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting expected to
start reducing stimulus and worries over declining economic growth in
China. - more
Unclear mills' prices lead quiet stainless steel market in Taiwan -
Although the plants' prices of November were announced last week, the
stainless steel market reaction yesterday was still slow due to the
unclear demand from downstream buyers and the actual execution price is
unknown. - more
Nickel and cobalt may need 20-times current production to meet demand -
Pallinghurst Group - To meet anticipated battery material demand, Sean
Thijsse at Pallinghurst Group has seen multiples as high as 20-times
current demand for graphite, nickel and cobalt; and lithium with
multiples as high as 40-times current demand. - more
China's nonferrous group suggests commercial reserves for cobalt,
nickel - media - China should improve its capability to secure nickel
and cobalt resources and set up commercial reserves for the metals, the
Shanghai Securities News (SSN) reported on Thursday, citing an official
with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. - more
Sumitomo says Madagascar's Ambatovy produced 19,000 T of nickel in H1 -
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp said on Thursday its Ambatovy
project in Madagascar produced 19,000 tonnes of nickel in the
April-September period and it stuck to its earlier plan of producing
40,000 tonnes of the metal for the year to March. - more
Sherritt announces planned Cuban nickel expansion - Toronto-listed
Sherritt International has announced an expansion strategy with its
Cuban partners to capitalise on the growing demand for high-purity
nickel and cobalt, driven by the accelerated adoption of electric
vehicles. - more
AISI Releases October SIMA Imports Data - Based on the Commerce
Department’s most recent Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA)
data, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that
steel import permit applications for the month of October totaled
2,396,000 net tons (NT)*. - more
Indonesia signals about-face on COP26 zero-deforestation pledge -
Indonesia's environment minister has dismissed as "inappropriate and
unfair" a global plan to end deforestation by 2030, days after her
country, home to a third of the world's rainforests, joined 127 other
nations in making the deforestation pledge. - more
Ford: E-Transit Is Sold Out, Production Begins Soon - By the way of
releasing U.S. sales results for the month of October, Ford announced
today that the upcoming all-electric Ford E-Transit van is "sold out."
- more
Ford F-150 Lightning Reservations Exceed 160,000 - more
Trucking can't solve the 80K driver shortage on its own: ATA - The
truck driver shortage is at its highest point since the American
Trucking Associations began monitoring it in 2005. - more
Maersk Sees Global Shipping Markets Staying Tight Into 2022 - more
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $8.89/lb ($19,605/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.04/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Tuesday and started today's session just under the 139,900 tonne
level. Shanghai nickel continues to shadow the LME, so nothing to
report there. The big news out of China, in our opinion, is the
discussion amongst steelmakers to possibly add a carbon surcharge to
exported steel. With Chinese steelmakers scrambling to find ways to
meet that nations directives to cut carbon emissions, charging
customers is a given, one way or another. SunSirs reports stainless
steel prices in China fell by .47% last week. Before you pop the
champagne, it remains 47.17% higher than this time last year. WBMS has
an interesting article below on the worldwide trade in stainless steel
scrap. One of our readers sent us an email yesterday
and was asking about the scrap index price we post daily. This is an
average of prices paid around the U.S. and does not reflect the price
you might find regionally. A more detailed source is the average price
posted by Scrap Monster. They not only list the national average, which
is basically the same as Barchart index, but also shows the huge range
of prices offered around the U.S. According to their page, one can
expect to be paid as low as $.10/lb, to a high of $1/lb, for 304
stainless steel scrap, with a national average of $.44/lb. You can
find their
page (here).
They also list the same information for Canada. We will monitor it
for awhile, and if it appears to stay current, we may make a change
of sources for the new year. Stay safe out there and have a great hump day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.95/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper bounces on scarce supplies and robust risk appetite - more
Tuesday's market review - Copper slides, caution prevails
ahead of Fed meeting - Copper prices fell on Tuesday alongside other
commodities due to caution ahead a meeting of the U.S. central bank,
but worries about shortages and historically low stocks supported
sentiment. - more
SunSirs: Stainless Steel Prices Fell Slightly on November 1 - According
to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on November 1, the price of
stainless steel was currently quoted at 21,266.67 RMB/ton, down 0.47%
from the previous trading day and up 47.17% from the beginning of the
year. - more
WBMS' First Edition of Stainless Steel Statistics - After
contributing to Stainless Steel World News Magazine with the 'Stats
Corner' for some time, we have now swapped to Stainless Steel World who
publish more regularly. For our first edition of 'Stainless Steel
Statistics' we provide a review of stainless scrap, including the
latest trade data. - more
Senior Economist Highlights Undocumented Nickel Ore Exports to China -
A senior economist with the University of Indonesia, Faisal Basri, in a
webinar held with Paramadina Policy Institute on Tuesday said nickel
ore export ‘leakages’ to China continue to happen in 2021. - more
CSC prepares surcharge for EU rules - China
Steel Corp plans to impose a moderate carbon surcharge on steel exports
in August next year ahead of the implementation of new EU carbon rules,
it said yesterday. - more
Anglo American promotes Duncan Wanblad to succeed long-standing CEO -
Anglo American Plc named insider Duncan Wanblad as its new chief
executive officer on Wednesday, in a widely expected move that will see
current boss Mark Cutifani, who led the miner for nearly a decade,
leave in April. - more
BHP in talks with Wyloo over Noront takeover, extends tender expiry -
BHP Group Ltd has started talks with billionaire Andrew Forrest's Wyloo
Metals regarding the takeover of Noront Resources Ltd as both the
companies try to acquire the Canadian nickel producer. - more
ISM reports October manufacturing output remains solid - In
its monthly Manufacturing Report on Business, ISM said that the
report’s key metric, the PMI, was 60.8 1 (a reading of 50 or higher
indicates growth), off 0.3% from September’s 61.1 reading. - more
Fed Confronts Economy With Most Widespread Shortages Since 1970s - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $8.94/lb ($19,700/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.11/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Monday and started today just over the 140,900 tonne level. Cancelled
warrants continue to climb, jumping to 48.28 to end October and just
under the 48% level to begin November. Base and precious metals are all
trading lower this morning, with Shanghai nickel trading slightly
higher, following yesterday's LME action. Here are your average costs
for October and a
comparison to September. Nickel rose one penny - from $8.80/lb to
$8.81/lb. Chromium fell slightly - from $5.15/lb to $5.13/lb.
Molybdenum fell from $20.09/lb to $19.56/lb. Considering the huge price
swings in nickel during the month of October, the fact the average only
increased by one cent a pound is rather incredible. After yesterday's
admission by China that industrial production has been contracting for
the last three months (and getting worse),
nickel bulls are going to have difficulty getting back to the $20,000
tonne level and if they do, holding on to it. It's day two of month
eleven, of year twenty one of the twenty first century. Stay safe out
there and have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.91/lb
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper falls 1% as iron ore market tumbles, cenbank meets loom - more
Monday's market review - China demand fears push copper to
two-week low - Copper prices slipped to their lowest in more than two
weeks on Monday as worries about demand in top consumer China spurred
selling, but dwindling inventories outside China offered some support.
- more
US, EU reach agreement to ease steel and aluminum tariffs - The United
States will lift tariffs on some steel and aluminum imports coming from
Europe beginning Dec. 1 as part of an agreement to ease trade tensions
between the two countries, the White House announced Sunday. - more
Vale's Long Harbour nickel two-thirds less CO2 intensive than industry
average - Vale's high-quality nickel produced at its Long Harbour
operation in Canada emitted about one third of the CO2 of the industry
average, the Brazilian miner said in a release on Monday. - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on October 30, 2021, domestic raw
steel production was 1,860,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 84.3 percent. Production was 1,549,000 net tons in
the week ending October 30, 2020 while the capability utilization then
was 70.1 percent. The current week production represents a 20.1 percent
increase from the same period in the previous year. - more
President Biden and Twin Metals Face Off in the Boundary Waters - Fresh
off the fight over Enbridge Line 3, there is another one occurring in
the Land of 10,000 Lakes. This time, the battleground is Northeastern
Minnesota and the players are the Biden administration and Twin Metals.
- more
Metal fabricator tackles welder shortage - By engaging area welding
programs and investing in new technology, DeGeest, Tea, S.D., is
building a solid foundation to grow - more
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $8.84/lb ($19,490/tonne). Indicators at 6:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.02/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Friday and ended the week just over the 142,400 tonne level. Nickel
retreated on Friday, and the bulls seem to still be suffering from
shell shock after October ended with a wild last half. The China
Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the one we follow, rose to 50.6 in October
while the China NBS Manufacturing Index, however, fell from 49.6 to
49.2. Since the latter is an official Chinese source, and is admitting
a decline in production, one should probably give it more
consideration. And with that slowdown spooking global markets, a quick
recovery in nickel prices might be a stretch. Stainless steel producers
are hoping for some stability after a volatile fall so far. We
ran across a news article this weekend that was titled 'Flights
cancelled, weddings postponed and people urged to stay home as China
battles 'serious' Covid outbreak' (linked below under Other News).
This caught our attention as some recent port shutdown's in China,
because of covid cases, have exacerbated the worldwide logistical
backup. Over the seven days of last week, China, a country of 1.4
billion plus citizens, has seen 337 covid cases and no deaths. During
that
same period, the U.S. had near half a million cases and saw 8,610
deaths. One country's serious concern is another's earnest hope for the
future. It's a new month and we welcome back and thank
one of our original sponsors for the site, Duaraloy Technologies. And
we also want to again thank our first ever annual sponsor, ELG Metals
Inc,
who sponsored a side banner add for all of 2021. ELG, a
global stainless steel recycler, had a big year, with Aperam buying
them in May. The combined efforts of our sponsors keep this news page
free for
visitors from around the world. It's a new week, and a new month. 60
days left in 2021, and 54 days till Christmas. Stay safe out there and
have a great week!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $8.81 (average October)
LME nickel chart - here
/ Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London copper rebounds on tight supply - more
Friday's market review - Aluminium prices slide with
Chinese coal - Aluminium prices headed towards two-month lows on Friday
as sliding coal prices eased concerns over supplies in top producer
China, where coal-fired power is a key component in the metal’s
production process. - more
China Weekly Inventory Summary and Data Wrap (Oct 29) - (excerpt) The
nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 540,000 wmt from a week
earlier to 8.987 million wmt as of October 29. The total Ni content
stood at 70,600 mt. - more
Chinese steel giant Baosteel reports stellar quarter despite high coal prices - more
Taiwan's stainless steel export sales expected to be increased in
Nov/Dec - Taiwan's stainless steel mills announced their prices for
November and the increase was not as high as market expectations. - more
Russia’s stainless steel exports slide in Jan-Sep y-o-y - According to
the Russian Special Steel and Alloys Consumers and Suppliers
Association (USSA), Russia’s stainless steel exports totaled around
8,700 tons in the first nine months of this year, dropping by 11.7%
compared to the same period a year ago. - more
The wealth of the richest Russians grew by $ 65.6 billion - more
Miners look to carbon capture to move beyond net zero: Andy Home - The
global race to carbon neutrality is a double-edged sword for the metals
and mining sector. - more
Europe's EV battery strategy threatened by supply chain gaps, Eramet
says - Europe is still not investing enough in the supply chain for
electric vehicle batteries and this could leave its planned
gigafactories short of coveted minerals, French mining group Eramet
said. - more
Europe: Plug-In Car Sales Up 42% In September 2021 - more
Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Approve Controversial Container
Dwell Fee on Ocean Carriers - The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
have approved a new fee on ocean carriers for import containers that
linger in marine terminals. - more
The major impact of minor stoppages in the metal manufacturing process
- Total productive maintenance (TPM) and overall equipment
effectiveness (OEE) programs aim to reduce or eliminate what’s known as
the six big losses. - more
(all
ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated Monday thru
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